Climate Change Projections For 2030 Estimate That Majority Of The World's Population Will Live In Coastal Areas Which Are Exposed To Floods, Storms, and Tsunamis

A publication from Nature demonstrates that satellite observations of floods reveal that the proportion of the population exposed to floods has grown by 24% globally since the turn of the century. That is 10 times more than scientists previously thought, and they estimate that by 2030, climate and demographic change will add 25 new countries to the 32 already experiencing increasing floods and harsh weather conditions. 

The United Nations has chosen to increase international cooperation for developing countries as the theme of this year’s World Tsunami Awareness Day, on November 5th. The UN Secretary-General designated November 5th as World Tsunami Awareness day back in December 2015, and it is meant to call on all countries, international bodies, and civil society to increase understanding of the deadly threat and share innovative approaches to reduce risks. 

The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, says that “rising sea levels caused by the climate emergency will further exacerbate the destructive power of tsunamis. We must limit warming to 1.5 degrees over pre-industrial averages and invest at scale in the resilience of coastal communities.” Many regions that experience rapid urbanization and growing tourism are prone to tsunamis, and it puts even more people in harm’s way. 

For World Tsunami Awareness Day in 2021, the theme will be the Sendai Seven Campaign. The Sendai Seven Campaign –"7 targets, 7 years" was launched in 2016 by the United Nations Secretary-General, with the main objective of promoting the seven targets of the Sendai Seven Campaign over seven years, which are the following: 

• 2016 – Target (a): Substantially reduce global disaster mortality by 2030, aiming to lower the average per 100,000 global mortality rate in the decade 2020- 2030 compared to the period 2005-2015

• 2017 – Target (b): Substantially reduce the number of people affected globally by 2030, aiming to lower the average global figure per 100,000 in the decade 2020- 2030 compared to the period 2005-2015;

• 2018 – Target (c): Reduce direct disaster economic loss in relation to global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030;

• 2019 – Target (d): Substantially reduce disaster damage to critical infrastructure and disruption of basic services, among them health and educational facilities, including through developing their resilience by 2030;

• 2020 – Target (e): Substantially increase the number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction strategies by 2020;

• 2021 – Target (f): Substantially enhance international cooperation to developing countries through adequate and sustainable support to complement their national actions for implementation of the present Framework by 2030;

• 2022 – Target (g): Substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to people by 2030.

Tsunamis are rare events but can be extremely deadly. In the past 100 years, 58 of them have claimed more than 260,000 lives or an average of 4,600 per disaster - more than any other natural hazard.

Plastic Production to Outpace Coal in Driving Climate Change by 2030

Plastics are on track to contribute more climate change emissions than coal plants by 2030, according to a new report by Beyond Plastics at Vermont’s Bennington College. As fossil fuel companies seek to recoup falling profits, they are increasing plastics production which are canceling out greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions gained from the recent closures of 65 percent of the country’s coal-fired power plants.

The New Coal: Plastics and Climate Change report, analyzes never-before-compiled data from ten stages of plastics production, usage and disposal and finds that the US plastics industry is releasing at least 232 million tons of greenhouse gases each year — the equivalent of 116 average-sized coal-fired power plants.

In June, the US Plastics Pact unveiled an aggressive national strategy to ensure all plastic packaging will be reusable, recyclable or compostable by 2025. But in the meantime, conventional plastics production shows no signs of slowing down: In 2020, the plastics industry’s reported emissions increased by 10 million tons of GHGs over 2019. According to the report, construction is currently underway on another 12 plastics facilities, and 15 more are planned — altogether these expansions may emit more than 40 million more tons of GHGs annually by 2025.

“The fossil fuel industry is losing money from its traditional markets of power generation and transportation. They are building new plastics facilities at a staggering clip so they can dump their petrochemicals into plastics. This petrochemical buildout is cancelling out other global efforts to slow climate change,” said Judith Enck, former EPA Regional Administrator and President of Beyond Plastics.

In addition to accelerating climate change, plastic pollutes water, air, soil, wildlife, and health — particularly in low-income communities and communities of color. The US plastics industry reported releasing 114 million tons of greenhouse gases nationwide in 2020. 90% of its reported climate change pollution occurs in just 18 communities where residents earn 28% less than the average US household and are 67% more likely to be people of color. In addition to greenhouse gases, these facilities also emit massive amounts of particulates and other toxic chemicals into the air, threatening residents’ health.

As Congress finalizes federal spending bills and the United Nations prepares to meet for COP26 in Glasgow next month, their failure to acknowledge and act to reduce plastics’ contribution to climate change threatens to undermine global climate-change mitigation efforts. Nearly 1,000 companies have already adopted 1.5°C-aligned, science-based targets — but governments must now do their part, and work to provide clarity for companies that are ready to accelerate their climate action with equally ambitious policies and incentives. Without both sectors working in tandem, the majority of sustainability experts are pessimistic about our ability to avoid the effects of catastrophic climate change.

China Enters a Major International Climate Agreement

Chinese chemical companies must stop emitting HFC-23, a super-pollutant and an unwanted byproduct of the production of hydrochlorofluorocarbon-22. China and India dominate the global HFC-22 production, with 75% in 2017. China recently began enforcing the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol. The agreement requires China and other countries to stop emitting HFC-23, which is 14,600 times more powerful than carbon dioxide in warming the atmosphere. 

In an address to the U.N. General Assembly, Chinese president Xi Jinping made a new climate commitment not to build any new coal-fired power projects abroad. China will also increase financial support for more green energy projects. The pledge came hours after United States President Joe Biden announced a plan to double financial aid to poorer nations to $11.4 billion by 2024 to help those countries switch to cleaner energy and cope with global warming’s worsening effects.

“We need to accelerate a transition to a green and low-carbon economy,” Xi said in a speech at the U.N. General Assembly. “We will make every effort to meet these goals. China will step up support for other developing countries in developing green and low-carbon energy, and will not build new coal-fired power projects abroad.”

The United Nations first targeted HFC-23 emissions in China in 2006, when a U.N. program known as the Clean Development Mechanism or CDM began incentivizing HCFC-22 producers to destroy their HFC-23 emissions. The program paid HCFC-22 producers in China and other developing countries emission reduction credits, traded with developed countries to meet their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol. 

Although China has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, ten companies in China built new HFC-22 capacity after April 2015 or are currently building new production facilities. In addition, three companies have also expanded or are in the process of expanding their HCFC-22 production capacity.

However, in another encouraging sign, the Bank of China said that it would no longer provide financing for new coal mining and coal power projects outside of China. 

IPCC Climate Change Report Finds That Major Climate Changes Are Inevitable and Irreversible

The United Nations formed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to inform national governments about the science and potential impacts of climate change. Humans have heated the planet by roughly 1.1°C since the 19th century, mainly from burning coal, oil, and gas for energy. 

The consequences of global warming can be seen this summer alone, with heatwaves across the US and Canada, floods devastating Germany and China, and wildfires are raging out of control across the world. Unless immediate, rapid, and large-scale action is taken to reduce emissions, the report says, the average global temperature is likely to reach or cross the 1.5°C warming threshold within 20 years. 

Some key points from the IPCC report:

• Global surface temperature was 1.09C higher in the decade between 2011-2020 than between 1850-1900.

• The past five years have been the hottest on record since 1850

• The recent rate of sea level rise has nearly tripled compared with 1901-1971

• Human influence is "very likely" (90%) the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s and the decrease in Arctic sea-ice

• It is "virtually certain" that hot extremes including heat waves have become more frequent and more intense since the 1950s, while cold events have become less frequent and less severe

While this report is more clear and confident about the downsides to warming, the scientists are more hopeful that if we can cut global emissions in half by 2030 and reach net zero by the middle of this century, we can halt and possibly reverse the rise in temperatures. 

Reaching net-zero involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible using clean technology, then burying any remaining releases using carbon capture and storage or absorbing them by planting trees.

According to a draft of an upcoming IPCC scientific report, some lifestyle changes could also cut emissions twice the size of Brazil’s current emissions by 2030. Changes include heating and cooling set-point adjustments, reducing appliance use, shifting to human-centered mobility and public transit, reduced air travel, and improved recycling. The draft IPCC found that individual behavior change in isolation cannot reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly, but individuals can contribute to overcoming barriers and enable climate change mitigations. 

The full second report, set to be released in 2022, will detail how climate change might affect human society, such as coastal cities, farms, or health care systems. A third report, also expected next year, will explore more fully strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and halt global warming.

New ILO-EU-UNESCO Collaboration Focuses on Jobs and Cultural Heritage in Iraq

The International Labour Organization (ILO), United Nations Education, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), and the European Union (EU) have launched a new program that will use employment-intensive approaches to create jobs for internally displaced persons, Syrian refugees, and host community members. The program will also try to preserve and rehabilitate cultural heritage sites at the same time. 

The collaboration will help generate around one thousand job opportunities for skilled and unskilled workers who will be employed to safeguard and rehabilitate cultural heritage sites, including the Erbil Citadel – a World Heritage site. Some of the jobs include cleaning and maintaining sites, including clearing away vegetation and rubble, installing shaded areas, and rehabilitating access roads and parking areas. 

The program will help provide short-term jobs that are associated with labor rights according to the international and local standards but also create jobs that contribute to tourism and promote local culture. 

The ILO in Iraq has also joined forces with local authorities in the Governorate of Dohuk to implement integrated employment-intensive investment program (EIIP) interventions aimed at creating more than 180 decent jobs. 

Some of the targets of the program with EIIP include: 

• Creating 184 short-term jobs equivalent to around 10,000 worker days.

• About 50% of those employed will be women.

• EIIP interventions will help improve 50 KM of irrigation channels and support the sorting of 240 tons of solid waste per day for 6 months.

• The projects will engage the local community in different areas, such as recruitment processes, prioritizing needs, and adopting sustainable practices (such as sorting from source).

• The EIIP team is working on other sectors as well to create decent jobs for forcibly displaced persons and host community members. Sectors include transportation, municipal services, and public maintenance, linking these works with skills development opportunities and empowering private sector contractors.