Climate Change Projections For 2030 Estimate That Majority Of The World's Population Will Live In Coastal Areas Which Are Exposed To Floods, Storms, and Tsunamis

A publication from Nature demonstrates that satellite observations of floods reveal that the proportion of the population exposed to floods has grown by 24% globally since the turn of the century. That is 10 times more than scientists previously thought, and they estimate that by 2030, climate and demographic change will add 25 new countries to the 32 already experiencing increasing floods and harsh weather conditions. 

The United Nations has chosen to increase international cooperation for developing countries as the theme of this year’s World Tsunami Awareness Day, on November 5th. The UN Secretary-General designated November 5th as World Tsunami Awareness day back in December 2015, and it is meant to call on all countries, international bodies, and civil society to increase understanding of the deadly threat and share innovative approaches to reduce risks. 

The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, says that “rising sea levels caused by the climate emergency will further exacerbate the destructive power of tsunamis. We must limit warming to 1.5 degrees over pre-industrial averages and invest at scale in the resilience of coastal communities.” Many regions that experience rapid urbanization and growing tourism are prone to tsunamis, and it puts even more people in harm’s way. 

For World Tsunami Awareness Day in 2021, the theme will be the Sendai Seven Campaign. The Sendai Seven Campaign –"7 targets, 7 years" was launched in 2016 by the United Nations Secretary-General, with the main objective of promoting the seven targets of the Sendai Seven Campaign over seven years, which are the following: 

• 2016 – Target (a): Substantially reduce global disaster mortality by 2030, aiming to lower the average per 100,000 global mortality rate in the decade 2020- 2030 compared to the period 2005-2015

• 2017 – Target (b): Substantially reduce the number of people affected globally by 2030, aiming to lower the average global figure per 100,000 in the decade 2020- 2030 compared to the period 2005-2015;

• 2018 – Target (c): Reduce direct disaster economic loss in relation to global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030;

• 2019 – Target (d): Substantially reduce disaster damage to critical infrastructure and disruption of basic services, among them health and educational facilities, including through developing their resilience by 2030;

• 2020 – Target (e): Substantially increase the number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction strategies by 2020;

• 2021 – Target (f): Substantially enhance international cooperation to developing countries through adequate and sustainable support to complement their national actions for implementation of the present Framework by 2030;

• 2022 – Target (g): Substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to people by 2030.

Tsunamis are rare events but can be extremely deadly. In the past 100 years, 58 of them have claimed more than 260,000 lives or an average of 4,600 per disaster - more than any other natural hazard.

IPCC Climate Change Report Finds That Major Climate Changes Are Inevitable and Irreversible

The United Nations formed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to inform national governments about the science and potential impacts of climate change. Humans have heated the planet by roughly 1.1°C since the 19th century, mainly from burning coal, oil, and gas for energy. 

The consequences of global warming can be seen this summer alone, with heatwaves across the US and Canada, floods devastating Germany and China, and wildfires are raging out of control across the world. Unless immediate, rapid, and large-scale action is taken to reduce emissions, the report says, the average global temperature is likely to reach or cross the 1.5°C warming threshold within 20 years. 

Some key points from the IPCC report:

• Global surface temperature was 1.09C higher in the decade between 2011-2020 than between 1850-1900.

• The past five years have been the hottest on record since 1850

• The recent rate of sea level rise has nearly tripled compared with 1901-1971

• Human influence is "very likely" (90%) the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s and the decrease in Arctic sea-ice

• It is "virtually certain" that hot extremes including heat waves have become more frequent and more intense since the 1950s, while cold events have become less frequent and less severe

While this report is more clear and confident about the downsides to warming, the scientists are more hopeful that if we can cut global emissions in half by 2030 and reach net zero by the middle of this century, we can halt and possibly reverse the rise in temperatures. 

Reaching net-zero involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible using clean technology, then burying any remaining releases using carbon capture and storage or absorbing them by planting trees.

According to a draft of an upcoming IPCC scientific report, some lifestyle changes could also cut emissions twice the size of Brazil’s current emissions by 2030. Changes include heating and cooling set-point adjustments, reducing appliance use, shifting to human-centered mobility and public transit, reduced air travel, and improved recycling. The draft IPCC found that individual behavior change in isolation cannot reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly, but individuals can contribute to overcoming barriers and enable climate change mitigations. 

The full second report, set to be released in 2022, will detail how climate change might affect human society, such as coastal cities, farms, or health care systems. A third report, also expected next year, will explore more fully strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and halt global warming.