Will Global Warming Cause Another Pandemic?

Amidst the already ongoing pandemic, new fears amount of increasing susceptibility toward ancient bacterias previously frozen in rapidly melting ice sheets at the poles. Ancient viruses, bacteria, and fungi from the past have laid dormant for millions of years, frozen under thick layers of ice. Many of these bacteria were not present on Earth’s surface at the same time as humans, and experts are unsure of the effects their reintroduction to the planet entails for humanity’s future. 

These ancient micro bacteria may include unknown species, previously eradicated pathogens, and certain types of robust bacteria able to survive immense amounts of environmental stress. Pathogens, viruses, dust, gas, and particulate matter settled into the glaciers and polar ice caps as they formed gradually over millions of years. Scientists are able to study the preserved microbiomes by sampling cores from deep within the frozen ground and ice. Frozen cores provide a snapshot of the Earth’s surface at various times throughout its history and include an array of vital environmental information. 

Each layer of the ice preserves atmospheric profiles, which scientists use to infer global temperatures, weather, composition, and more about ancient environments. The core samples give scientists a unique look into Earth’s prehistoric microbiomes for use as an indicator of future climate conditions. They study the microbiome’s genomics to understand better how these bacteria and viruses can survive in the extreme ice conditions, potentially useful for finding life on other frozen planets. Most samples are completely harmless and immediately destroyed after analysis to prevent global contamination. Still, there is always a fear of releasing a harmful microorganism if global temperature increases continue to melt the ice. 

Global warming has been a constant topic on the world stage during the 21st century as ice sheets melt, sea levels rise, and industrial emissions pollute the environment. Countries at the most immediate risk of climate change are low-lying areas impacted by sea-level rise. However, the threat of invading ancient pathogens could impact all of humanity. A child died, and twenty people were hospitalized in 2016 following the release of an ancient anthrax spore after thawing a section of frozen Siberian soil. 

This event ignited international worry that other deadly diseases could be revived, including formerly eradicated diseases like smallpox and the black plague. These human ailments could be potentially reanimated from frozen corpses trapped in the ice, dating back to early humans. Modern humans lack the immune defenses to fend off these deadly pathogens and are at even greater risk to unknown species. 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that even if global temperatures are maintained to only 2 degrees Celsius increase by 2100, more than 25 percent of the global permafrost would still melt. Worst-case scenarios where global temperatures exceed 5 degrees Celsius would mean a catastrophic loss of up to 70 percent of the permafrost melted. To ensure minimal contact with potentially deadly ancient viruses, infrastructure, and human development must avoid newly thawed habitats. The released pathogens and viruses leach into the groundwater and saturate topsoil where humans could come into contact with them and transmit them globally.